As we get older we all become more interested in the macabre subject of death. Even if it is best viewed as how to live a long and happy life, hopefully free from problems such as heart attacks, cancer, etc.
My beloved wife Monique passed away on at 17:00 on the 23 December 2023. She took her health very seriously, so naturally I also took her health very seriously. But now I have started to take more seriously my own heath.
One super important aspect is to understand my own risk profile, and what I should do to improve it. And that starts with a detailed assessment of my present state of health.
But this post looks at the more generic problem of cause of death and how I, or You, will die.
Life expectancy is a statistical measure of the estimate of the average remaining years of life at a given age.
The most commonly used measure is life expectancy at birth. For the US population this is around 79, for the UK its around 81, and for my country of residence its around 82 (the world average is around 73).
But what interests me, and everyone else, is life expectancy now. For me his means as a white, male, over 70. This is best expressed as “Years Left to Live”, and for me its 32% (0 to 9 years), 48% (10 to 19 years), and 19% (20 to 29 years). That just leaves a 1% chance of getting past 100.
The key statement is that I have a 68% chance of getting past 80.
What’s also interesting is that the longer you live, your life expectancy changes and improves. If I make 80, my life expectancy might be 59% (0 to 9 years) and still 38% (10 to 19 years), and I would have a 3% chance of getting past 100.
So as an 80 year old I would have around a 40% chance of making 90, whereas as when I was 70 years old, the probably of making 90 was only 19%.
Cause of death is all about how other people (You) tend to die. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention classifies death into 113 causes, which are grouped into 20 categories of disease and external causes.
113 causes is a bit daunting, if one thing doesn’t get you, another will.
I’m of course interested in what my risks are, as a white, male, over 70. but we have to start by looking at how the overall population (US) dies.
It looks like cancer is the main cause of death up to the age of about 60, and then circulatory problems start to take over, and respiratory problems also start to become significant. This is based on cause of death marked on US death certificates between 2005-2014.
Circulatory system diseases affect the heart and blood vessels and make it harder for blood to flow throughout the body, so it covers both cardiovascular diseases (including heart attack and heart failure) and vascular diseases (including blood clots). Some conditions have symptoms, but others are silent. Common symptoms include chest pain, edema, heart palpitations and shortness of breath.
Respiratory diseases include bacterial pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, tuberculosis, acute asthma, lung cancer, and severe acute respiratory syndromes.
This is a truly macabre heading, but it just means looking at the risks facing someone who is (still) a living white, male, over 70.
What we see is that my main risk/cause of death is already circulatory, and will increasingly be so for the rest of my life.
As an example, should I survive to be 80 years old, circulatory problems are at 37%, compared to cancer at 29%. Given that cancer is often perceived as the main cause of death, the key message is to not underestimate the risks of circulatory problems.
Next steps
The next step is to assess my existing risk profile, and then to understand how to manage/reduce the most important risks.
